Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
In our continued analysis, the latest data suggests business confidence in improving, especially in the private nonresidential construction sector. However, borrowing conditions remain restrictive, signaling the further slowing of growth in construction ahead.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator rose in February.
While this is a positive signal for the economy, elevated interest rates, the lagged effects of contractionary monetary policy and an inverted yield curve suggest economic headwinds remain.
US OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change has declined for three months.
The EU’s industrial sector remains in a recession.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in the 12 months through January slowed in growth, coming in 11.4% above the year-ago level.
Growth is beginning to slow in the private nonresidential construction market, as high interest rates and waning economic data make new projects less appealing. While the nonresidential sector lags Construction Machinery New Orders, the likely trajectory of that market signals increasing headwinds for the machinery market.
US Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Annual U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in the 12 months through February was 0.6% below the year-ago level.
While U.S. Crude Oil Futures Prices are up about $10 year-to-date and above breakeven prices for new wells, the oil and gas industry is still hesitant to expand drilling given economic uncertainty and a hostile regulatory environment.
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
US Industrial Production
Industrial Production in the three months through February was 0.3% above the same period one year ago. Quarterly Production has generally plateaued in recent months.
Decline is likely given the lagged impact of contractionary monetary policy, which will likely materialize in Production in the near term.
US Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery & Equipment Shipments
U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Shipments in the 12 months through January were 18.7% below the year-ago level. The rate of contraction is easing.
Further rate-of-change rise in Shipments is likely given recent rise in U.S. Pesticides, Fertilizers and Other Chemical Shipments which typically lead Shipments by one to two quarters.
US Farm Machinery & Equipment ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production is down from an August 2023 peak but has trended relatively flat so far in 2024.
Demand for heavy trucks is likely to be muted this year as the economy moves further along the back side of the business cycle and interest rates remain elevated.
US Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders vacillated between $164 billion and $169 billion over the last 10 months.
The World Uncertainty Index has come down from a mid-2023 peak and poses a downside signal for New Orders. However, further political actions pose an outsized impact on this market.
US Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential New Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through January was 20.9% higher than the same period one year prior. Growth is generally slowing.
Business confidence is improving but is below its long-term average while borrowing conditions remain restrictive, signaling further slowing of growth in Construction ahead.
US Private Nonresidential New ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
U.S. Total Public Construction in the 12 months through January totaled $444.1 billion, 17.3% above the year-ago level. Growth is accelerating.
Decline in government tax receipts and a likely tapering of spending from existing programs signals that the accelerating growth trend for Construction will likely give way to slowing growth this year.
US Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production has been relatively flat since a tentative December 2023 peak.
Manufacturing sector decline poses a downside pressure on demand for mined raw materials and energy. However, relatively resilient consumers and commercial businesses tied to the services sector will likely buoy demand.
US Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the three months through January was 5.6% below the year-ago level.
While they have improved, energy costs remain challenging for German manufacturers. Germany also faces a shortage of labor, a lack of investment in infrastructure, and a waning trade relationship with China.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production
Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in January was 2.4% below the year-ago level. Further decline is likely in at least the near term.
Recession in the industrial sector within Europe is likely to continue at least in the near term due in part to below-average business confidence and elevated interest rates.
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
