The Brazilian P7 heavy-duty vehicle market is expected to show average annual growth rates of 7% in the run-up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics. This growth estimate is according to Integer Research’s new Brazil Diesel Emissions & ARLA 32 Market Study: 2013 Edition, which forecasts P7 vehicle sales as well as demand for S10 low-sulphur diesel.
“We expect the Brazilian P7 vehicle market to grow strongly over the next five years and the country is likely to strengthen its position as an exporter of heavy-duty vehicles,” says Tim Cheyne, Director of Emissions at Integer. “The FIFA World Cup next year and the Olympic Games in 2016 require huge infrastructure investment and this will drive growth in the P7 fleet.”
These estimates indicate the recovery of the market, which has been suffering from a sales slump following the introduction of the new emissions legislation PROCONVE P7 in 2012. Pre-buying of P5 vehicles as well as P5 inventory carry-over from 2011 had initially depressed demand for new P7 vehicles.
Alongside the introduction of PROCONVE P7, the use of low-sulphur diesel became obligatory for the new vehicle fleet – S50 during 2012 and S10 from the beginning of this year. Demand is expected to increase significantly as the P7 fleet continues to grow. Integer forecasts annual S10 diesel consumption to hit 17 billion litres by 2016, reaching 35 billion liters by 2020. A buoyant economic environment would boost demand even further and an annual consumption of 18 billion litres of S10 diesel for heavy-duty vehicles could be reached by 2016, rising to 41 billion liters by 2020.
Conclusions of the study will also be discussed at the upcoming 3rd Diesel Emissions Conference & ARLA 32 Forum Brazil 2013, taking place on May 14 to 16, 2013 at the Renaissance Hotel, Sao Paulo.
