Data suggests there is potential to resume a pattern of near-term growth. However, experts warn this is unlikely given other factors, including declining corporate profits, elevated interest rates and softening consumer finances.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
In our continued analysis, this month’s data suggests that while there is potential for the U.S. economy to resume an accelerating growth trend in the near term, this is unlikely given the body of other evidence such as declining corporate profits, elevated interest rates and softening consumer finances.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator rose mildly in October.
While the Indicator suggests potential for the U.S. economy to resume an accelerating growth trend in the near term, this is unlikely given the body of other evidence such as declining corporate profits, elevated interest rates and softening consumer finances.
US OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator continued its monthly rate-of-change rise in October, although it was mild.
Annual Europe Industrial Production is down 0.6% from one year ago, as their export volume is declining. Europe faces further downside pressure due in part to the lagged effects of contractionary monetary policy.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders totaled $49.3 billion in September, 14.8% above the year-ago level. Annual New Orders have set record highs for roughly a year.
New Orders include surface mining equipment. Declining mining production (excluding oil and gas) suggests downside pressure on New Orders.
US Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Annual U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production is declining but remains above the year-ago level by 1.9%.
Demand is likely to be stronger from the oil and gas industry than other segments of mining. However, elevated interests and waning economic activity will likely make businesses hesitant to invest in new machinery at this time.
US Mining ProductionITR Economics
US Industrial Production
Quarterly Industrial Production, which has been relatively flat over the last year, is beginning to skew toward a downward trajectory.
The largest segment of the industrial economy, U.S. Total Manufacturing Production, fell 1.2% below its year-ago level on a quarterly basis and is pulling down on the total. Upside pressure is stemming largely from the oil and gas industry.
US Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery & Equipment Shipments
Annual U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Shipments in September were 20.7% below the year-ago level.
Interest rates remain elevated, hindering demand for financed farm equipment.
US Farm Machinery & Equipment ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production ticked down for the second month in a row in October but remains 5.6% above the year-ago level.
Decline in freight rates and wholesale trade signals excess capacity in supply chains, which will likely hinder demand for new heavy-duty trucks.
US Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in September totaled $165.7 billion, 14.7% above the year-ago level. New Orders are in a general slowing growth trend.
While the existing defense budget could limit growth, supplemental military aid to Israel and Ukraine are upside factors.
US Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential New Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the third quarter totaled $176.4 billion, 21.3% above the year-ago level. The quarterly growth rate continues to move lower.
Put-in-place Construction will likely continue to lose momentum as projects planned and funded before the now-tight financial conditions wrap up.
US Private Nonresidential New ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
Annual U.S. Total Public Construction in September came in at $415.9 billion, 12.9% above the year-ago level.
Prior trends in U.S. Single-Unit Housing Starts signal that accelerating growth in annual Construction could last into mid-2024 but that slowing growth will follow.
US Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production was 5.3% above the year-ago level in October but continues to slow in growth.
Mining Production tends to move in line with the broader industrial sector, which will likely contract in the near term. Oil and Gas Extraction Production may extend the rising trend slightly beyond the overall industrial sector.
US Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the third quarter was 4.3% below the third quarter of 2022.
Production continues to fall from a slump in new orders. Downside pressure on Germany’s economy may be exacerbated by a court ruling wiping €60 billion from the federal budget.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production
Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production has declined in recent months but was still 7.3% above the year-ago level in September.
Annual agricultural commodity prices in Europe have generally moved downward across a wide array of categories, which could hinder demand for farm equipment.
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
