U.S. Machinery Markets Down in 2019, Growth Possible in 2020

U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in 2019 were down 7.5% compared to the previous year. However, a rise in the residential construction sector could increase demand for construction machinery in the first half of 2020. U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Supplies were slightly lower than 2018, and declining exports could keep this sector on the back side of the business cycle through mid-year.

Europe Agriculture Machinery Production in 2019 declined 5.3% from 2018. The Europe Leading Indicator is in a rising trend which suggests Product may reach a business cycle low early in 2020.

*Editor’s note: At the time OEM Off-Highway received this data, impacts of COVID-19 on industry data was not yet known. Stay tuned for future updates.     


View the corresponding Equipment Market Outlook charts for more data

NOTE: All data for charts supplied by ITR Economics

Europe Agriculture and Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • Europe Agriculture Machinery Production in 2019 was 5.3% below the 2018 level.
  • The Europe Leading Indicator is in a rising trend and suggests Production could reach a business cycle low early this year.
Europe Agriculture Machinery Production
China Diesel Bus Production [return to nav]
  • China Large Diesel Bus Production in 2019 was up 5.0% from 2018. Annual Production is rising.
  • The coronavirus outbreak could cause supply chain disruptions and hinder Production in the near term.
China Large Diesel Bus Production
U.S. Industrial Production [return to nav]
  • Average U.S. Industrial Production during the 3 months through January was 0.8% below the same period 1 year ago.
  • The ITR Leading Indicator™ and the U.S. ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) suggest that the Production quarterly rate-of-change could transition to business cycle rise during the first half of this year.  
    Us Industrial Production
U.S. Leading Indicator [return to nav]
  • The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Indicator ticked up in January. Many other U.S. leading indicators, published by organizations such as ITR Economics, the Institute for Supply Management, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, are in cyclical rising trends.
  • Our system of leading indicators suggests the US industrial sector will likely transition to a business cycle rising trend during the second half of this year.
Us Leading Indindicator


U.S. Private Nonresidential New Construction [return to nav]
  • U.S. Private Nonresidential New Construction spending during the fourth quarter of 2019 was up 0.2% from the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • Trends in U.S. Corporate Profits for Domestic Non-Financial Industries (with capital consumption adjustments) suggests further business cycle rise in Construction in the coming quarters.
Us Private Nonresidential New
U.S. Construction Machinery, New Orders [return to nav]
  • U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in 2019 totaled $33.1 billion, down 7.5% relative to the 2018 level.
  • U.S. Housing Unit Building Permits during the fourth quarter came in 12.2% above the fourth quarter of 2018. Rising residential sector construction could boost demand for construction machinery in the first half of this year. Additionally, our expectations for the mining sector (excluding oil and gas) suggest business cycle rise in New Orders during the first half of this year.
Us Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Supplies in 2019 totaled $30.7 billion, 0.3% lower than in 2018. Supplies are declining.
  • U.S. Food Shipments during the fourth quarter of 2019 were 1.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018. Increased Food Shipments relative to the year-ago level could increase demand for farm machinery in the coming quarters. However, declining U.S. Exports of Farm Machinery and Equipment suggest demand from abroad has not yet begun rising, which could keep Supplies on the back side of the business cycle into at least the middle of the year.   
    Us Farm Machinery
U.S. Total Public New Construction [return to nav]
  • U.S. Total Public New Construction totaled a record-high $328.8 billion in 2019, 7.1% higher than in 2018.
  • U.S. State and Local Consumption Expenditures are in a slowing growth trend. Business cycle decline in Expenditures suggests Construction could transition to a slowing growth trend in the near term. 
    Us Total Public New Construction
North American Rotary Rig Count [return to nav]
  • The average North American Rotary Rig Count during the 12 months through January was 1,081 rigs, 13.1% below the year-ago level.
  • Trends in the U.S. ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) suggest we could see business cycle rise in the U.S. economy during the second half of this year. Expect demand for oil to be higher during the second half of the year.  
    North American Rotary Rig Count
U.S. Defense Industry, New Orders [return to nav]
  • U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in 2019 totaled $159.8 billion, 5.7% higher than in 2018.
  • Rising global tensions are evident in measures such as the World Uncertainty Index and will likely mean higher defense spending in the coming quarters.
Us Defense Capital
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production [return to nav]
  • Annual average U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production is above the year ago level but is declining.
  • Our expectations for the U.S. ATA Truck Tonnage Index suggest that Production may reach a business cycle low around the middle of the year. Recovery is likely during the second half of the year as U.S. Industrial Production is expected to be in a business cycle rising trend which will spur demand for transportation services.  
    Us Heavy Duty Trucks
Europe Leading Indicator [return to nav]
  • The Leading Indicator raw data is rising from a July 2019 low, while the Indicator monthly rate-of-change has been rising for nearly 1 year.
  • The Europe Leading Indicator, Europe Purchasing Managers Index, and Europe Business Confidence Index indicate that Europe Industrial Production will likely transition to business cycle rise around the middle of the year. Plan for cyclical rise in this region during the second half of the year.
Europe Leading Indicator
Germany Industrial Production [return to nav]
  • Germany Industrial Production during the fourth quarter of 2019 was 6.2% below the 2018 level. The quarterly rate-of-change ticked down in December but is above the tentative August 2019 low.
  • Rise in the Germany Leading Indicator suggests business cycle rise in Production will likely be sustainable in the coming quarters.
Germany Industrial Production