Declines Continue for Global Heavy Equipment Markets

U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders for the 12 months through June were down 11.2% from 1 year ago; weakness in the construction and mining markets suggests additional decline is likely. U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Supplies were also down 17.9% from the year ago level.

June monthly Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production was down 1.5% from 1 year ago. However, declining export volumes indicate severe contraction in the coming quarters.

While Germany Industrial Production was down 22.1% in the second quarter, the Germany Purchasing Managers index for Manufacturing was up from July 2019, showing signs of positivity moving into 2021.

U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders continues to show positivity with an increase in June New Orders compared to the previous year. Further growth is in this sector is anticipated. 

READ MORE: Second Quarter Shows Continued Uncertainty for Equipment Manufacturers


View the corresponding Equipment Market Outlook charts for more data

NOTE: All data for charts supplied by ITR Economics

Europe Agriculture and Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production moved lower in June and was down 10.8% from 1 year ago. June monthly Production was down a comparatively mild 1.5% from 1 year ago.
  • Declining Europe Export Volume suggests the contraction in Production is likely to become more severe in at least the coming quarters.  
    Europe Agriculture Machinery Production
China Diesel Bus Production [return to nav]
  • China Large Diesel Bus Production during the 12 months through June was down 11.4% from 1 year ago. June Production came in 51.2% below June of 2019.
  • Rise in the Major Five Leading Indicator and the China Purchasing Managers Index suggests Production could reach a business cycle low by the end of the year, with recovery on tap for early 2021. 
    China Large Diesel Bus Production
U.S. Industrial Production [return to nav]
  • Average U.S. Industrial Production during the 3 months through July was down 11.8% compared to the same 3 months 1 year ago.
  • Quarterly Production ticked up in July. Trends in the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator and in the U.S. Total Industry Capacity Utilization Rate suggest rise will persist in at least the near term.
Us Industrial Production
U.S. Leading Indicator [return to nav]
  • The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Indicator rose for the third consecutive month in July.
  • The tentative rising trend in the Leading Indicator monthly growth rate signals business cycle rise for the U.S. industrial sector during 2021.
Us Leading Indindicator

U.S. Private Nonresidential New Construction [return to nav]
  • Second-quarter U.S. Private Nonresidential New Construction totaled $118.8 billion, 2.4% below the same quarter 1 year ago.
  • Decline in Construction spending is likely to be driven in part by decline in U.S. Corporate Profits for Nonfinancial Industries, which will likely reduce investment in new nonresidential construction projects next year.
Us Private Nonresidential New
U.S. Construction Machinery, New Orders [return to nav]
  • U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders totaled $31.2 billion during the 12 months through June, down 11.2% from 1 year ago. Monthly New Orders in June were down a comparatively mild 5.7%.
  • Coupled with corporate profitability struggles, weakness in the construction and mining markets suggests additional decline in New Orders is probable in at least the near term. 
    Us Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Supplies during the 12 months through June were down 17.9% from 1 year ago. June Supplies were down 6.4% from June 2019 after declines of more than 20% in April and May relative to those months in 2019.
  • The severity of decline in U.S. Rail Freight Carloads is increasing, suggesting a business cycle low in Supplies is unlikely to materialize in the coming quarters. However, upturns in commodity prices bode well for recovery in Supplies no later than the middle of next year. 
    Us Farm Machinery
U.S. Total Public New Construction [return to nav]
  • U.S. Total Public New Construction during the 12 months through June totaled $344.4 billion, up 7.6% from 1 year ago. Growth is slowing, with second-quarter Construction up 4.2% from the second quarter of 2019.
  • We do not expect significant increases in new construction in the near term as federal, state, and local governments allocate resources to providing pandemic assistance and stimulus while faced with budget constraints.
Us Total Public New Construction
North American Rotary Rig Count [return to nav]
  • The North American Rotary Rig Count averaged 806 rigs in the 12 months through July, down 33.3% from last year. The July monthly Rig Count, at 299, was 72.8% lower than July of 2019.
  • Tentative rise in U.S. Crude Oil Futures Prices suggests producers may be incentivized to invest in new rigs moving into 2021.
North American Rotary Rig Count
U.S. Defense Industry, New Orders [return to nav]
  • U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders during the 12 months through June totaled $160.8 billion and were up 6.1% from last year. June New Orders were up 15.0% from the same month in 2019.
  • General rise in the World Uncertainty Index provides evidence that further growth in New Orders is likely, as defense spending tends to increase with uncertainty.
Us Defense Capital
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production [return to nav]
  • Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production was down 33.7% in July. The severity of year-over-year decline in the monthly data is generally easing; July was down 46.5% from July 2019, milder than the 92.6% decline in April versus 1 year ago.
  • Trends in the US ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) indicate a probable early-2021 cyclical trough for Production.
Us Heavy Duty Trucks
Europe Leading Indicator [return to nav]
  • The Europe Leading Indicator rose further in July.
  • Rise in the Leading Indicator monthly growth rate suggests the European industrial sector will reach a cyclical trough around early 2021, followed by recovery.  
    Europe Leading Indicator
Germany Industrial Production [return to nav]
  • Second-quarter Germany Industrial Production was down 22.1% from 1 year ago.
  • The Germany Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing broke above the 50 threshold for the first time since 2018 and was up 18.1% from July of 2019. This bodes well for Production moving into 2021. 
    Germany Industrial Production