Increased Lead Times and Pandemic Impacting Global Agriculture Equipment Production

Construction and agricultural equipment orders in the U.S. were once again above year-ago levels. Slower growth is expected for construction equipment new orders in 2022 due to current trends in residential construction. Meanwhile, increased lead times are impacting the agricultural machinery market.

In Europe, slower growth trends are also anticipated. Nations imposing lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions could lead to downturns in production for agricultural and other heavy equipment. 

READ MORE: Third Quarter 2021 Continues to Show Strong Market Demand

View the corresponding Equipment Market Outlook charts for more data

NOTE: All data for charts supplied by ITR Economics

Europe Agriculture and Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in the 12 months through October was 16.0% above the previous 12 months.
  • European nations are reinstating pandemic-induced lockdowns and other restrictions, posing a potential downside risk to near-term Production.
    Europe Agriculture Machinery Production
China Diesel Bus Production [return to nav]
  • China Large Diesel Bus Production in the 12 months through October came in 2.6% above the year-ago level, the first instance of year-over-year growth since April 2020.
  • Trends in leading indicators such as the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index suggest the current accelerating growth trend will be short-lived.
    China Large Diesel Bus Production
U.S. Industrial Production [return to nav]
  • U.S. Industrial Production in the 3 months through November was 5.1% above the same period 1 year ago.
  • The “halo effect” of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2020 and 2021 will likely help Production avoid contraction in 2022.
Us Industrial Production

U.S. OECD Leading Indicator [return to nav]
  • The U.S. OECD Leading Indicator was virtually flat in November, though downward momentum can be seen in the monthly rate-of-change.
  • The Leading Indicator is signaling an annual growth rate peak for U.S. Industrial Production in early 2022; growth will slow for the remainder of the year.
    Us Leading Indindicator
U.S. Private Nonresidential New Construction [return to nav]
  • U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the 3 months through October was 2.1% above the same 3 months in 2020.
  • 2022 will be a year of growth in nonresidential construction, as longer-term construction projects reflect the positivity of the macroeconomy in 2021.
Us Private Nonresidential New

U.S. Construction Machinery, New Orders [return to nav]
  • Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders were 31.2% above the year-ago level in October.
  • Trends in residential construction point to growth at a slowing pace for New Orders in 2022.
    Us Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Farm Machinery Production [return to nav]
  • Annual U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Shipments moved lower in November but was 8.4% higher than 1 year prior.
  • The resolution of John Deere labor strikes could improve prospects in this market, though sellers report increased lead times for many machinery and equipment types.
Us Farm Machinery

U.S. Total Public New Construction [return to nav]
  • Annual U.S. Total Public New Construction ticked up in October but was 4.0% below the year-ago level.
  • Given the magnitude of spending included in the recently passed federal infrastructure package, public construction may be an area of opportunity, especially for those businesses operating in transportation, power, and water infrastructure sectors.
    Us Total Public New Construction
North American Rotary Rig Count [return to nav]
  • The North American Rotary Rig Count averaged 595 rigs in the 12 months through November, coming in above the year-ago level for the first time since 2019.
  • Global oil demand exceeds supply, which is reflected in elevated oil prices – this suggests opportunity for increased drilling operations.
    North American Rotary Rig Count
U.S. Defense Industry, New Orders [return to nav]
  • Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders transitioned to a year-over-year growth trend in October, currently at 0.5% above the year-ago level.
  • Federal tax revenues point to growth in 2022, although at a slowing pace beginning in the second half of the year.
    Us Defense Capital
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production [return to nav]

    • Decline in annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production persisted in November as the industry grapples with semiconductor shortages, but annual Production was up 19.6% from last year.
    • U.S. Surface Trade with Canada and Mexico is near record highs, indicating elevated need for trucking services and therefore heavy-duty trucks.
    Us Heavy Duty Trucks

    Europe Leading Indicator [return to nav]
    • The Europe Leading Indicator trended sideways in November.
    • Given typical lead times, the monthly Indicator rate of change suggests a transition to slowing growth for the European economy around early 2022.
      Europe Leading Indicator
    Germany Industrial Production [return to nav]
    • Germany Industrial Production in the 3 months through October was virtually even with the same 3 months of 2020; annual production has flattened in recent months.
    • An aging workforce in Germany poses a long-term downside risk to a country which has traditionally been a leader in European industry.
      Germany Industrial Production