July 2024 Equipment Market Outlook

Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.

In our continued analysis, the latest data highlights an increase in U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in April 2024, which were 9.8% above the year-ago level. However, prior decline in residential construction and upcoming decline in nonresidential construction signal downside pressure on related machinery new orders.

The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.

NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.

 US OECD Leading Indicator

  • The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator was unchanged from April to May. The general trend is one of rise.
  • While the Indicator is an upside signal, headwinds from contractionary monetary policy remain and some markets are still experiencing a correction from the whiplash of pandemic-era policies and inventory decisions. 

U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorU.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics


Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator

  • The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change was unchanged from April to May. The Indicator rate-of-change has been moving horizontally with a slight downward bias.
  • Europe Industrial Production remains in a recession. The European Central Bank recently moved to lower interest rates, which could help spur recovery. 

Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorFour Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics


US Construction Machinery New Orders

  • Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders rose in April and were 9.8% above the year-ago level.
  • Prior decline in residential construction and upcoming decline in nonresidential construction signal downside pressure on related machinery New Orders given their respective leading and lagging relationships. 

U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersU.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics


US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index

  • U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in the 12 months through May was 2.8% below the year-ago level.
  • Recession in Production will be relatively brief and mild given our expectations for a plateau in the industrial sector and for slowing growth in the macroeconomy, rather than outright recession. 

U.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexU.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics


US Industrial Production

  • U.S. Industrial Production in the three months through May was roughly even with the year-ago level.
  • Recent tariff announcements may hurt or help some underlying segments of the industrial sector, though we anticipate a general plateau ahead overall. 

U.S. Industrial ProductionU.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics


US Farm Machinery Shipments

  • Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments rose in April and were 8.9% below the year-ago level.
  • Shipments’ recovery trend is likely to continue. Should the adverse conditions of extreme weather impact profitability in this sector, it could pose a downside risk to Shipments. 

U.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsU.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics


US Heavy-Duty Truck Production

  • Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production in May ticked down but was 3.0% above the year-ago level.
  • Annual Production decline is partially supported by generally slowing growth in U.S. Total Retail Sales and a plateau in B2B activity, which are impacting freight demand. 

U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionU.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics


US Defense Capital Goods New Orders

  • U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in the 12 months through April totaled $156.6 billion, 5.0% below the year-ago level.
  • U.S. assistance to Ukraine and Israel is an upside, while the lower-than-anticipated defense budget increase is a downside. 

U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersU.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics


US Total Public Construction

  • U.S. Total Public Construction in the 12 months through April totaled $460.72 billion, 18.9% above the year-ago level.
  • A slowing of growth is likely ahead given the lagged impact of interest rate pressures and mild decline in State and Local Tax Revenue. 

U.S. Total Public ConstructionU.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics


US Mining Production

  • Annual U.S. Mining Production through May was 1.6% above the year-ago level.
  • Mining excluding oil and gas is generally declining, though year-over-year rise in some commodity prices poses an upside. 

U.S. Mining ProductionU.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics


Germany Industrial Production

  • Germany Industrial Production in the three months through April was 4.2% below the year-ago level.
  • Proposed tariffs by the European Union on China pose a risk to Germany’s macroeconomy should these tariffs result in trade tensions. 

Germany Industrial ProductionGermany Industrial ProductionITR Economics


Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production

  • Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in April was 10.6% below the year-ago level.
  • Recent rate cuts by the European Central Bank pose an upside for Production, though impacts will take some time to materialize. 

Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionEurope Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics


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