February 2024 Equipment Market Outlook

Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.

In our continued analysis, recent data shows last year's U.S. mining production was 4.9% higher than in 2022, with annual production continuing to rise at a slowing pace. Economists suggest that an overall weakening in the macroeconomy will result in less demand for goods and thus less demand for mined raw materials in the quarters ahead. However, the oil and gas sector remains on a growth trajectory.

The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.

NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.


US OECD Leading Indicator

  • The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator continued rising in December.
  • While this indicator is signaling an earlier industrial production low, a broader mix of economic evidence still suggests further decline.

U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorU.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics


Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator

  • The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change ticked down but has been in a general rising trend since late 2022.
  • Annual Europe Industrial Production in November 2023 was 2.3% below the year-ago level and will likely continue to decline in at least the near term given contractionary monetary policy.

Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorFour Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics


US Construction Machinery New Orders

  • Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in November 2023 were 12.7% above the year-ago level.
  • New Orders will likely soften in the near term due to elevated interest rates and stagnant corporate profits, although opportunities exist in sectors benefiting from government assistance, such as infrastructure and data centers.

U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersU.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics


 US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index

  • Though average Production in 2023 was 1.1% above 2022, Production is declining and will likely continue to do so in the near term.
  • Compared to 2021 and 2022 levels, commodity prices are generally lower, dampening the incentive to mine. Expect further downside pressure in the mining machinery market in at least the near term.  

U.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexU.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics


US Industrial Production

  • Industrial Production in the fourth quarter was 0.2% below the fourth quarter of 2022. Production trended flat for much of 2023.
  • Downside pressures are likely to linger and potentially intensify in 2024 as the lagged effects of contractionary monetary policy unfold. A weaker consumer will dampen demand for goods, negatively impacting the manufacturing sector. 

U.S. Industrial ProductionU.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics


US Farm Machinery & Equipment Shipments

  • Annual US Farm Machinery and Equipment Shipments through November were 21.4% below the year-ago level.
  • Lower commodity prices in 2023 likely cut into farmers’ income, suggesting downward pressure on Shipments. While we will likely see interest rates go down in 2024, providing some relief, the negative impact on this market could linger. 

U.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment ShipmentsU.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment ShipmentsITR Economics


US Heavy-Duty Truck Production

  • U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production declined in late 2023, with the year coming in 3.5% higher than 2022.
  • Expect further decline in the near term given the suppressed freight market.

U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionU.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics


US Defense Capital Goods New Orders

  • Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in November totaled $169.6 billion which is 15.3% above the year-ago level. Expect New Orders to generally rise in the near term.
  • While the defense budget could cap investment in 2024, continuing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel could result in additional aid funding which would positively impact New Orders. 

U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersU.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics


US Private Nonresidential New Construction

  • U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through November 2023 came in 22.5% above the same year-ago level.
  • The quarterly growth rate ticked down slightly and macro trends suggest slowing growth is likely ahead. Trends in U.S. Corporate Profits and U.S. Commercial and Industrial Sector Architecture Billings Index signal further downward pressure ahead.

U.S. Private Nonresidential New ConstructionU.S. Private Nonresidential New ConstructionITR Economics


US Total Public Construction

  • Annual U.S. Total Public Construction in November totaled $429.7 billion, 14.9% above the year-ago level.
  • One of the largest components of Public Construction is US Public Highway, Street and Infrastructure Construction, which is at a record-high level and accelerating. 

U.S. Total Public ConstructionU.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics


US Mining Production

  • U.S. Mining Production in 2023 was 4.9% higher than in 2022. Annual Production is rising at a slowing pace.
  • Overall weakening in the macroeconomy will result in less demand for goods and thus less demand for mined raw materials in the quarters ahead. However, the oil and gas sector remains on a growth trajectory.

U.S. Mining ProductionU.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics


Germany Industrial Production

  • Germany Industrial Production in the three months through November was 4.3% below the same three months one year earlier.
  • The Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which leads Production by nearly a year, is signaling further decline ahead.  

Germany Industrial ProductionGermany Industrial ProductionITR Economics


Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production

  • Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in November, although declining, is 2.9% above the year-ago level.
  • The European Central Bank recently announced they are keeping key interest rates unchanged; persistent and elevated interest rates will likely continue to damper demand for and reduce Production. 

Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionEurope Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics


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