A recent report from Navigant Research examines the global market for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including global market forecasts for sales and conversions and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain and primary fuel, through 2035.
Although medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) represent less than 5% of the total vehicle market today, they use a far greater portion of the total fuel and energy consumed in the road transportation sector because of the low average fuel economy and high annual mileage typical of MHDVs. This is expected to be a particularly critical fact as the total number of MHDVs in use worldwide is projected to nearly double between 2014 and 2035. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of MHDVs are expected to grow from 4.3 million annually in 2014 to 7.1 million in 2035.
“The vast majority of MHDVs on roads today use conventional internal combustion engines powered by either gasoline or diesel,” says Scott Shepard, Research Analyst with Navigant Research. “That is changing as less expensive alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, such as natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (also known as propane or autogas), and electricity make inroads in the market.”
Nearly 80% of today’s MHDVs run on diesel fuel, according to the report. That is changing as rising fuel costs and environmental concerns push commercial and government fleet operators to consider investments in fuel efficiency technologies and alternative fuels. The most competitive alternative fuel, according to the report, is natural gas, which has a significant advantage over most other alternatives to gasoline and diesel.
The report “Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles” analyzes the global MHDV market in seven segments: conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, natural gas vehicles, propane autogas vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. Forecasts for two segments fueled primarily by petroleum derivatives (ICE and hybrid electric vehicles) are broken out by region and by fuel: gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and conversions and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.