The GB1589 regulation and its aggressive enforcement, as well as China’s electric vehicle policy adoption, continued to have an impact on commercial vehicle demand in the third quarter of this year, according to the most recent China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC). The outlook includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China’s heavy- and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.
“As a result of the enforcement of the environmental protection measures and the NEV (new energy vehicle) policies, truck sales continued to improve in Q3. However, bus demand was virtually unchanged,” says Robert Perkins, Senior Global Business Consultant at ACT Research. He continues, “It is important to note that much like the U.S., NEVs are alternative fueled vehicles, including electric vehicles. However, this category does not include natural gas vehicles.”
The leveling-out of China’s economy and lower base year comparisons made for what seems like rapid year-over-year recovery in some commercial vehicle segments during Q3’17. “Coupled with improvement in market demand, domestic need for heavy trucks increased significantly, rising nearly 70%,” notes Perkins. He continues, “The tractor segment continues to fare well, with nearly 119% expansion in Q3.”
While still on the positive side of the ledger, medium-duty truck sales registered only modest growth of almost 17%, but a marked improvement from the 12% increase registered in Q2’17. “This still pales when compared to the 22% gain recorded in Q3’16,” says Perkins.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.