Growth in the Brazilian medium voltage drives market will outpace that of the Chinese market by 2% over the next three years, with revenue growth forecast at 18.5% annually in Brazil from 2011 to 2014, according to two new studies by IMS Research.
The two markets are vastly different in size, as the Chinese market represents 28% of the global consumption of drives compared with Brazil’s 3% share. High growth in Brazil is predominately driven by oil and gas and mining expansion, as well as projects for infrastructure improvement. Brazil’s state-run energy company’s plan to achieve daily production of 500,000 barrels of oil from the Tupi field discovered off the coast of Brazil by 2020 is one of the many projects propelling growth.
Increasingly, the Brazilian market is dependent on China’s demand for iron concentrate and crude petroleum, as China tops Brazil’s export countries. China has also increased its foreign direct investment in Brazil, with totals reaching almost $10 billion in 2010 and 2011, focused largely on the oil and gas and mining sectors.
Analyst Michelle Figgs explains, “With China’s need for raw materials fueling sales of medium voltage drives in Brazil, high forecasted growth for this market will depend in part on China’s future economic health. The good news for drives suppliers is the International Monetary Fund’s predictions include growth of China’s GDP to remain higher than any other country during the next few years, with economic expansion forecast at 9.4% in 2011 and 8.9% in 2012.”
Unlike Brazil, growth in the Chinese medium voltage drives market is slowing. Since June 2011, the Chinese Government has tightened monetary policies on bank loans, which has held up many large projects, such as high speed railways, city metros, highways and factory renovation projects. Both end users and machine builders are facing financial strain from these policies as investments in many industries slowed quickly.
Still, growth in the Chinese market will remain strong due to implementation of policies regarding motor efficiency and continued government support of energy-saving renovations in various industries including mining, metals, and oil and gas. Also, resumed investments are expected by the end of 2012 for large scale projects, particularly those involving high speed railways, city metros, nuclear power stations and water conservancy. Average annual revenue growth in the Chinese market for medium voltage drives is forecast at 16.6% from 2010 to 2015.