A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the market for natural gas vehicles (NGVs), including global forecasts, broken down by vehicle segment, alternative drivetrain and region, through 2025.
The NGV market is taking off in some regions, although growth has been slower than previously projected. While drops in oil prices and gains in battery cost reduction and capacity are hindering some of the advantages of NGVs, the market is still expected to experience growth. According to the report, global annual NGV sales are expected to grow from $2.4 million vehicles in 2015 to $3.9 million in 2025.
“A significant portion of the cost advantage of natural gas has evaporated in the past 12 months as a result of the collapse of world oil prices,” says Sam Abuelsamid, Senior Research Analyst with Navigant Research. “However, various regional factors also affect the markets for NGVs, including ongoing political tensions, the availability of refueling infrastructure, tightening tailpipe emissions requirements, and total cost of ownership.”
The collapse in global oil prices that began in late 2014 is now anticipated to continue through the rest of this decade, according to the report. While there continues to be an abundance of natural gas production in North America, new production has slowed dramatically, which is expected to result in only modest regional growth, with a focus on fleet markets, particularly for local applications such as refuse trucks, delivery vehicles, and transit buses operating out of centralized depots.
The report, Natural Gas Vehicles, examines the global market for NGVs, with a focus on passenger cars, light-duty trucks and vans, medium/heavy-duty trucks and buses, and commercial vehicles. The study provides an analysis of the key factors expected to influence demand for NGVs, including fuel prices, infrastructure availability, regulations and technical issues. Global market forecasts, broken down by vehicle segment, alternative drivetrain and region extend through 2025. The study also analyzes how market and technology issues will affect automobile and truck manufacturers; suppliers of natural gas (NG) engines, fuel storage and delivery hardware; and the companies that convert liquid-fueled vehicles to NG.