The economic outlook suggests muted growth for the first half of 2025 in the United States as high interest rates and inflation remain a concern, but there are some positive upward trends.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
The latest data reveals muted growth for the first half of 2025 in the United States as high interest rates and inflation remain a concern, but there are some positive upward trends. Europe is also dealing with contraction relating to industrial production, particularly with Germany, which is dealing with high energy prices and weakness with China.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
U.S. OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator is plateauing.
The Indicator suggests muted growth for U.S. Industrial Production in the first half of 2025.
U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change continues to trend flat.
Annual EU Industrial Production is contracting, but the rate-of-contraction is easing. The leading indicator suggests the rate-of-change will likely continue an upward trajectory but could flatten out in 2025.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in the 12 months through September were $50.5 billion, 2.4% above the year-ago level.
New Orders will likely decline mildly in at least the near term given still-high interest rates and declining construction backlogs.
U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Annual U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in October was 5.8% below the year-ago level. Further decline is likely.
We expect a more attractive capex environment in 2025 as macroeconomic activity picks up. However, we may need to see more progress on interest rates before machinery investments pick up.
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
U.S. Industrial Production
U.S. Industrial Production in the three months through October was 0.3% below the same period one year ago. Leading indicators suggest gradual upward movement in the quarterly rate-of-change is likely in the coming year.
Positive contributors to production, including nearshoring and resilient consumers, will contribute to rise moving into 2025.
U.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics
U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments
Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments in September were 0.9% above the year-ago level.
While Shipments are gradually recovering, elevated interest rates and weak agriculture commodity prices remain downside pressures.
U.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production in the 12 months through October was 2.3% above the year-ago level. Annual Production is moving lower from a tentative June 2024 peak.
The U.S. has been importing more goods from Mexico rather than China. Higher surface trade activity is a good sign for heavy truck demand and suggests decline in Production will be mild. Relatively high interest rates remain a lingering risk.
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders
Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in September rose and were 2.8% above the year-ago level. New Orders are gaining momentum.
Transitioning to a new U.S. president in January 2025 could mean defense budget changes and could impact future foreign aid. The existing budget suggests near-term rise.
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the third quarter was 3.5% above the third quarter of 2023. Growth is slowing.
Associated Builders and Contractors reports that backlogs are generally declining in the commercial sector, foreshadowing Construction softness in the upcoming year.
U.S. Private Nonresidential ConstructionITR Economics
U.S. Total Public Construction
Annual U.S. Total Public Construction in September totaled $484.5 billion, 12.4% above the year-ago level. Growth is slowing.
As momentum wanes, annual construction will likely plateau in the coming quarters.
U.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
U.S. Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production in October was 0.5% below the year-ago level. Downside pressure is predominantly in hard-rock mining, while oil and gas is in a slowing growth trend.
Downward movement could linger into early 2025 but expected improvement in the macroeconomy will help drive rising demand for mined inputs.
U.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Quarterly Germany Industrial Production in September was 3.2% below the year-ago level. Germany is currently a laggard relative to total EU Industrial Production, which is down just 1.3% over the same time period.
High energy prices and weakness with China, an important trading partner, are likely contributing to contraction.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in the 12 months through September was 18.6% below the year-ago level.
Further contraction is likely in at least the near term, though gradually lowered interest rates could help improve affordability.
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
