The Polish construction industry regained growth momentum in 2018, with output expanding by 17.0% in real terms – up from 6.5% in 2017. The industry’s output value is expected to continue its momentum and grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.61% in real terms between 2019 and 2023, driven by the government’s plans to upgrade the country’s transport infrastructure, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s report, ‘Construction in Poland - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023’ reveals that the industry’s output value in real terms is expected to increase from US$118.6 billion in 2018 to US$148.6 billion in 2023, measured at constant 2017 U.S. dollar exchange rates.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments, “Poland’s construction industry will continue to expand over the forecast period, but the pace of growth will be marginally slower than over the review period. Over the forecast period, industry growth is expected to be supported by public and private sector investments in transport infrastructure and energy construction projects, as well as expansion in commercial and industrial buildings projects.”
Infrastructure construction was the largest market in the Polish construction industry during the review period, accounting for 31.8% of its total value in 2018. The market is expected to remain the dominant sector over the forecast period, with infrastructure construction accounting for 32.5% of the industry’s total value in 2023. Growth in the sector is expected to be supported by the government’s plan to upgrade the country’s transport infrastructure. The government plans to invest PLN40.0 billion (US$11.1 billion) to develop a high-speed rail network and PLN35.0 billion (US$9.7 billion) to construct a new hub airport under the Central Communications Port (CCP) project by 2027.
The total construction project pipeline in Poland – as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million – stands at PLN623.4 billion (US$172.5 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is well balanced, with 50.9% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-planning and planning stages as of April 2019.
Richards concludes, “There are downside risks associated with Poland’s construction industry outlook. Notably, the ongoing disagreements over various governance issues between the government and European Commission (EC) could limit growth over the forecast period if the EC reduces funding for major projects.”