Expectations Tempered for Heavy Vehicle Market Recovery in 2021

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, expectations for the Class 8 and trailer production volumes have been trimmed for 2020, and expectations of a recovery starting in 2021 have been tempered. Additionally, current order softness and excessive inventory building in the medium-duty sector contributed to forecast reductions in the next two years for that segment, as well.

"Broadly, there are three components to the forecast cuts for 2020 and 2021: Supply, demand, and timing,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborates, “Some, like overcapacity, have been on the radar for a long time. Others, like the growing weakness in manufacturing and the broader economy, have come on slowly and inexorably over several months.”

Vieth adds, “The past 6 months have been marked by a continued loss of traction in manufacturing. Despite the GM-impacted payroll increase in November, most recent evidence from the sector suggests that recovery is likely to come later, rather than sooner.”