According to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine OUTLOOK, published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates, engines over 10 L are projected to account for more than 85% of the Class 8 production between 2020 and 2024, and the trend to smaller displacement engines is expected to continue.
Tom Rhein, President of Rhein Associates comments, “Although the over 14 L engine category will remain the largest segment in 2019, there is a trend to smaller displacement engines in the over 10 L market segment for Class 8 trucks and tractors, with an acceleration prompted by new emission regulations expected in 2024.” Regarding Classes 5-7, Rhein says, “In this market, the current metric of interest is gasoline penetration, which continues to see share gains.”
Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, notes, “Diesel power is under attack long term for use in on-highway commercial vehicles. Alternative power is being developed, tested, and refined, even as diesel engines are transitioning to become more fuel efficient and clean. Emission regulations are one of the main drivers of alternative fuel adoption, which is why the Engine OUTLOOK includes a section on the commercial vehicle regulatory environment.” He adds, “While many think this is a California-only phenomenon, we would note that Oregon’s legislators recently voted in favor of a bill to regulate diesel trucks in the Portland metro area, and we continue to see reports about various state and federal-level funding for alternative fuel programs that are sending millions of dollars toward these efforts for both commercial and passenger vehicle use.”
The latest NA On-Highway Engine OUTLOOK published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates highlights power-source activity for CV GVWs 5-8, including 5-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends. The Engine Outlook ties to the detailed NA CV vehicle forecasts published monthly by ACT in the NA OUTLOOK.
Rhein Associates is a major supplier of powertrain information to worldwide clients enabling accurate and informed business decisions and marketing plans.