Data reveals Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments ticked up in March. Although they were 11.8% below the year-ago level, April marks the fifth consecutive month of improvement as shipments recover.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
In our continued analysis, the latest data reveals Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments ticked up in March. Although they were 11.8% below the year-ago level, April marks the fifth consecutive month of improvement. Shipments are recovering, though elevated interest rates and agriculture commodity prices below year-ago levels remain downsides.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator climbed higher in April.
The Indicator signals increasing upward pressure on the macroeconomy later this year; however, monetary policy remains a downside.
U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
Following a year-long rising trend, the Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change has been oscillating around its current value since late 2023.
EU Industrial Production is in recession. The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator and the Markit Economics’ Europe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index signal that the pace of decline for EU Industrial Production could begin to ease in the coming months. Tight monetary policy remains a downside pressure.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders ticked down in March but were 10.6% above the year-ago level.
Pricing has contributed to New Orders rise but will contribute less in the coming quarters, as inflation is easing. Annual U.S. Construction Machinery Production, a measure of activity, is declining and 3.2% below the year-ago level.
U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in the 12 months through April was 2.0% below the year-ago level.
Slowing growth in the macroeconomy and high interest rates signal further decline. Oil prices are above breakeven, and some metals prices have been rising. This suggests that decline in Production will be mild.
U.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
US Industrial Production
U.S. Industrial Production in the three months through April was at about the same level as one year ago.
There is divergence within the industrial sector, partly due to government spending. High-tech sectors, like U.S. Computers and Electronics Production, are benefiting the most from this spending, whereas U.S. Machinery Production is in recession.
U.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery Shipments
Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments ticked up in March but were 11.8% below the year-ago level.
Shipments are recovering, though elevated interest rates and agriculture commodity prices below year-ago levels remain downsides.
U.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production ticked down in April, coming in 3.4% above the year-ago level.
Annual Production decline is likely given elevated interest rates and a general plateau for industrial activity and business-to-business spending.
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in the 12 months through March totaled $162.7 billion, down from the previous month, but 4.2% above the year-ago level.
Recently passed foreign aid is an upside for New Orders.
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through March was 13.1% higher than the year-ago level. The quarterly trend is experiencing its normal seasonal decline. The annual trend is in a slowing growth trend.
The U.S. Institutional Sector Architecture Billings Index portends downward pressure on Construction in the quarters ahead.
U.S. Private Nonresidential ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
U.S. Total Public Construction in the 12 months through March totaled $454.3 billion, 18.3% above the year-ago level.
The quarterly growth rate has moved lower for two months. This is a potential signal of slowing growth ahead but may be normal volatility. As infrastructure funding is used up, slowing growth is more likely.
U.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production through April was 2.1% above the year-ago level.
The oil and gas component of Production is in a pronounced rising trend on an annual basis, while mining excluding oil and gas is below the year-ago level.
U.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the three months through March was 7.1% below the year-ago level.
While China, a major trade partner for Germany, continues to face macroeconomic headwinds in its property sector, the U.S.'s relatively resilient economy may benefit Germany as a trade partner in the coming quarters as its consumers are on relatively stable footing.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production
Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in March was 7.8% below the year-ago level.
Potential interest rate cuts in the EU could provide some relief for high-cost capital expenditures like agricultural and forestry machinery, though rate policy remains uncertain.
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
