The global off-highway industry is experiencing resilient growth with significant regional shifts, particularly Asia-Pacific's expected dominance by 2033, while OEMs face intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers who maintain production cost advantages of approximately 60% despite Western OEMs retaining benefits through superior uptime, fuel efficiency, and residual value.
- Asia-Pacific market expansion: Expected to exceed North American and European markets combined by 2033, requiring OEMs to prioritize regional presence and local production strategies.
- Chinese cost advantage: Mid-sized excavators cost roughly 60% less to produce in China than North America, with approximately one-third of the advantage from simplified designs.
- Economic growth resilience: U.S. growing at 2% and China at 3-3.5% despite geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs averaging 11.7%, and high interest rates.
- Market-specific trends: Construction demand growing with infrastructure investment; mining relatively flat except for copper and battery materials; agricultural equipment recovering from difficult period.
- Electrification momentum: Electric machines comprise approximately 50% of new wheel-loader sales in the 7-10 ton range in China, signaling accelerating technology adoption.
Growth in the off-highway sector remains resilient, though demand shifts regionally and competition intensifies, according to the "Trends in the Global Off-Highway Industry" session, presented by Roland Berger's Dr. Wilfried Aulbur and Giovanni Schelfi at the OEM Industry Summit | Fall 2026. The session examined global off-highway market conditions and the strategic implications for OEMs as market conditions continue to shift.
With regard to growth, the global consultancy experts suggest resilient global growth still supports opportunity, but OEMs need to plan for uneven regional demand, especially as Asia-Pacific is expected to exceed North America and Europe combined by 2033. These circumstances make regional presence, scale, sourcing, access to production, and export-versus-local-production decisions increasingly important.
In a closer look at global growth, the positive news is that, by and large, global economic growth is holding on, despite geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs and high interest rates. According to the presentation's data, the U.S. is growing at about 2%, and China is projected at roughly 3% to 3.5% as it faces the challenge of shifting toward domestic demand.
The average tariff rate discussed was 11.7%, making production footprints, sourcing, and make-versus-buy decisions increasingly important.
Market Trends
Construction demand is expected to grow across regions, supported by infrastructure investment, labor shortages, automation and jobsite technology solutions. Asia Pacific is projected to exceed the combined North American and European markets by 2033.
Mining growth is comparatively flat, with coal declining, while copper, battery materials and gold offer opportunities.
Agricultural equipment demand is expected to improve after a difficult period, although trade disruption has affected exports.
Eye on China
Aulbur and Schelfi stressed that OEMs must prepare for competition across construction, mining and agriculture. Chinese OEMs are expanding abroad as domestic demand weakens and overcapacity rises, emphasizing that emerging markets are a key entry point, with increasing activity in mature markets.
A comparison of mid-sized excavators found Chinese production costs about 60% below North American production costs. Roughly one-third of the advantage came from simplified designs. Additionally, Chinese steel was reported as 70% cheaper in the analysis. Overall, the data found that Western OEMs retain total-cost-of-ownership advantages through uptime, fuel efficiency and residual value.
Electrification is advancing in China, especially in certain wheel-loader sizes and mining applications. In the 7- to 10-ton wheel-loader range, about 50% of new machines were reported to be electric.
For more market data and industry insights, click here to view the entire "Trends in the Global Off-Highway Industry" session and check out other sessions from OEM Off-Highway's OEM Industry Summit | Fall 2026.
