Energy price volatility, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, tighter emission norms, and the emergence of noise pollution-free zones are generating a plethora of opportunities for alternate truck powertrains. External influencers such as urbanization, geopolitics, incentives and technology advancements are all combining to boost the medium- and heavy-duty (MD-HD) compressed natural gas (CNG) and LNG truck market. By 2025, nearly one in 10 MD-HD trucks sold will run on natural gas.
"Compressed ignition engines with high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) technology are gaining traction and are expected to garner wide OEM support to reach sizeable scalability by 2025," says Frost & Sullivan Mobility Industry Analyst Saideep Sudhakar. "The NG market is witnessing the first wave of consolidation across integrators and tank manufacturers. Japan, Russia, India and Indonesia are emerging as the next big adopters of NG vehicles."
"Global Medium-Heavy Duty CNG and LNG Truck Market" is part of Frost & Sullivan's Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Subscription and finds that China, Europe and North America will account for approximately 83.4% of the global NG truck sales in 2025. Asia will benefit from the oversupply of LNG. Other topics covered under the subscription include medium- and heavy-duty NG truck product portfolio, engine portfolio, vocation wise NG penetration, Ignition Technology, key influencing trends in next big adopters of NG vehicles.
Although the market is set to enjoy a double-digit growth rate, the higher cost of acquisition, low oil prices, and lack of government subsidies could give commercial fleet owners a pause. In due course, technological advancements and improved scalability will help OEMs lower the initial cost of vehicles and encourage fleet owners to ply NG trucks.
"Cummins, FPT and Weichai will be key Tier 1 engine suppliers shaping the future of the NG market across developed markets, with an extensive NG engine portfolio for a wide variety of duty cycle applications," notes Sudhakar. "While CNG trucks currently hold a higher percentage of the market share, LNG may dethrone CNG by 2025 due to the greater penetration of long-haul trucks."