Achieving a fossil-free commercial transport system in the timeframe of the Paris Agreement target is not only possible, but also financially attractive from a societal perspective. This is the key conclusion of The Pathways Study initiated by Scania.
CO2 emissions can be reduced by over 20% simply by optimizing transport systems, for example through improved routing and better load management. Moreover, there are several fuel- and powertrain pathways to a fossil-free future. Biofuels offer the highest CO2 emissions reduction pathway and electrification is the most cost-effective. Other technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cells and e-highways, have important use cases to consider and may be critical for select geographies and applications.
To reach this goal, the industry must begin to change rapidly and immediately. New technologies can take a long time to achieve wide adoption, as the existing stock of vehicles turns over slowly. This means that for 2050 to be fossil-free, changes at scale are required already by 2025, including not just new technologies but also new infrastructure, behaviors, and partnerships.